COVID-19 Wednesday Update: Mid Hudson Meets New Hospitalizations Metric!

COVID-19 Wednesday Update: Mid Hudson Meets New Hospitalizations Metric! The New York State Regional Monitoring Dashboard showed continuing good news for the Mid Hudson Region this morning. The region’s 3-day rolling average for New Hospitalizations dropped to 1.55 per 100K population, below the benchmark requirement of 2. The Region’s New Hospitalizations rate was 2.02 on Monday May 17; 2.77 on May 14 and 4.74 on May 7. By meeting this key health metric to qualify for Phase 1 reopening under Governor Andrew Cuomo’s NY Forward plan, only two metrics remain for the Region to open. The first is hiring enough Contact Tracers, an effort begun several weeks ago, and one that the region is expected to surpass in due course.

Mid Hudson’s New Deaths Rate now approaching target

The remaining critical health metric that the region has yet to meet is New Deaths. The threshold to meet the New Deaths metric is also based on a 3-Day moving average. And each county in the region must show a 14-day decline in the 3-day moving average of New Deaths OR fewer than 5 deaths. The region’s new deaths rate dropped from 10 on Monday to 7 this morning – it must drop below 5 to meet this final metric. The 3-day New Deaths moving average was 69 on May 14.

There has been much speculation about how soon the county may reopen since County Executive George Latimer told the Armonk Chamber of Commerce last Wednesday that the county could qualify for Phase 1 reopening by Memorial Day. Whether Latimer was too optimistic or not, the region’s declining new hospitalizations and new deaths numbers are good news. One caveat is that all seven counties in the Mid Hudson region, that includes Rockland, Putnam, Ulster, Dutchess, Orange, Sullivan and Westchester County, must reach all seven metrics in order for any of the counties to clear for Phase 1 reopening. Ulster County has already reached all seven metrics. The state’s Regional Monitoring Dashboard does not break their data down below the regional level.

Seven of ten regions have now reopened

Five New York State regions, including Central New York, Finger Lakes, Mohawk Valley, North Country and Southern Tier, passed all seven COVID-19 health metrics in time to begin their Phase 1 re-opening on May 15. On Monday, Governor Cuomo announced that two more regions, Western New York and the Capital Region, that includes Albany and Schenectady, qualified to reopen. That leaves only three regions that are not ready to open. Namely, New York City, Long Island and Mid Hudson – which comprise 70% of the New York population.

The seven health metrics include, declines in Total Hospitalizations, Deaths, and New Hospitalizations. And exceeding minimum benchmarks for Hospital Bed Capacity, ICU Capacity, Diagnostic Capacity (testing), and Contact Tracing Capacity. Regions must continue to meet all seven metrics or they would lose their reopening status and return to being subject to the guidelines outlined in NY Pause. The metrics are based on guidance from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the World Health Organization, and the U.S. Department of State.

Latimer’s Timeline for Phase 2 and 3

Phase 1

The first phase of the NY Forward plan  includes reopening construction, manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, wholesale trade and retail businesses. In this phase retail openings would be limited to curbside or in-store pick-up and drop off. The State has released mandatory guidelines for all Phase 1 businesses regarding physical distancing, protective equipment, hygiene and cleaning, communication, and screening. You can read them here. Phase 1 Retail includes:

• Clothing Stores
• Direct Selling Establishments
• Electronics and Appliance Stores
• Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses
• Furniture and Home Furnishing Stores
• Florists
• General Merchandise Stores
• Health and Personal Care Stores
• Jewelry, Luggage, and Leather Goods Stores
• Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies Stores
• Office Supplies, Stationery, and Gift Stores
• Used Merchandise Stores
• Shoe Stores
• Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument and Book Stores
• Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers

Phase 2

The second phase of the New York State plan would open up full economic activity for retail, professional services, administrative support, real estate and rental & leasing. Again, this could happen, according to Latimer by June 1.

Phase 3

Phase 3 is the opening of restaurants and food services – currently forecast for June 15.

Phase 4

The final phase of New York’s reopening plan would bring all arts, entertainment, recreation and education online. Latimer offered no guidance on when Phase 4 of New York’s re-opening plan would occur. (That means schools, theatre and summer camps. UGH!)