Cuomo Anticipates Loosening Restrictions as Positive Test Rate Declines – Vaccine Issues Persist

admin Posted OnJanuary 26, 2021

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Cuomo Anticipates Loosening Restrictions as Positive Test Rate Declines – Vaccine Issues Persist: New York State’s positive test rate for COVID-19 continued to drop last week as Governor Andrew Cuomo announced that the state is reevaluating current economic restrictions, including within its micro cluster zones. Acknowledging that the predicted holiday spike threat has probably passed, Cuomo indicated that the loosening of restrictions could come as soon as Wednesday, January 27.

Drilling down on New York’s improving statistics shows that last week’s 7-day moving average positivity rate was 5.6%. That’s down from 6.54% last week and a fall/winter peak of 7.94%. New York State’s positivity rate peaked at 49.9% on March 30 and was as low as .09% on September 18. It wasn’t until November 5th that it returned to as high as 2%.

Mid-Hudson Now Amongst States Worst Regions

Our Mid-Hudson region, which includes Westchester, Putnam, Rockland, Ulster, Dutchess, Orange and Sullivan counties, remains above the state average with a 6.8% positivity rate. That’s now the second highest rate in the state, surpassed only by Long Island at 6.9%. Westchester County’s positive test rate last week was 6.6%.

Nationally, the 7-day rolling average positive test rate dropped to 9.1% from 10.9% last week and 13.6% three weeks ago, according to the Johns Hopkins University of Medicine’s Coronavirus Resource Center. The US positive test rate peaked at 21.9% in the spring and bottomed at 4.1% in June and 4% in October.

Drop in Rate of Transmission Rates

The Governor also introduced additional statistics to bolster the encouraging news. Including the rate of transmission which measures how many people an infected person transmits the virus to – a stat that has largely gone unmentioned until now. New York’s rate of transmission has dropped from 2.5 (each COVID case was infecting 2.5 additional people) to below one. Cuomo suggested that “officials” consider this an ideal number. And, the Governor reported that 72% of health care workers have been vaccinated, surpassing the 70-90% threshold for herd immunity, which should ensure that hospitals can sustain staff levels to remain operational.

Vaccine Scarcity, Distribution Questions Persist

Finally the Governor addressed issues of fair and equitable distribution of vaccines, stating, “If the pharmacies use their vaccine for police, fire, etc., then the 65+ won’t get a fair allocation.” This would seem to be a departure from a mindset, originally outlined by the CDC’s vaccine plan which excluded people aged 65+ from the Phase 1b plan, despite the demographic’s significantly higher infection mortality rate for the disease. The CDC subsequently did an about face on January 11 and New York State immediately complied.

It is unclear why the governor focused his concerns on pharmacies, as it appears that pharmacies outside of New York City do not currently have a significant role in vaccine distribution, we reported last week. Although CVS anticipates administering vaccines in all 10,000 of their pharmacy locations across the country, the vaccine is currently available in only select stores in IN, MA and NY. In New York vaccines are only available in stores in Erie and Suffolk County. While Rite Aid stores are on distribution lists in New York City, the Rite Aid website says that they expect their role will become more important during Phases 2 and 3 when the vaccine is available to the general public.

Further, in a communique last week Caremount Medical in Mt. Kisco said that they have not received any vaccines to date. They noted that there are no medical groups in our region that have available vaccine as the New York Department of Health is focused on distributing vaccines to their state-run distribution centers and pharmacies. It is unclear why medical groups are not part of New York’s current vaccine rollout. However, Caremount has announced that they are well prepared to administer vaccines once they receive them. When they receive supplies, Caremount will initiate all appointments based on their patient database. Which means, when your number is up, in accordance with state guidelines, they will contact you. They added that there, currently, is no waiting list, and their method suggests there won’t be one.

The larger issue is that vaccine’s continue to be in short supply to accommodate the over seven million New Yorkers who now qualify to receive the vaccine. Currently, vaccine appointments at the 12 state-run facilities are allocated through the end of April. Only the state’s vaccine centers in Potsdam and Plattsburgh are taking appointments. And unless the rate of new doses increases, at the current supply rate of an additional 250,000 per month, Phase 1b will not be complete until mid-August.