COVID-19 Monday Update: Mid Hudson Nears Metric #6 & 7!

admin Posted OnMay 18, 2020

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COVID-19 Monday Update: Mid Hudson Nears Metric #6 & 7! The New York State Department of Health reported this morning that last week’s new COVID-19 cases in Westchester County dropped below 1,000 for the first time since the week of March 8 – ten weeks ago. Westchester’s 937 new cases was a 28% drop from the previous week (1287) and an 86% drop from the county’s peak of 6646 the week of March 22. However, with County Executive George Latimer’s surprise announcement to the Armonk Chamber of Commerce last week that Westchester could be eligible for a Phase 1 reopening under Governor Andrew Cuomo’s NY Forward Plan by Memorial Day – all eyes have shifted to a whole new set of metrics.

New Hospitalizations Hit 2.02 Against a Target of 2!

Namely the seven health metrics outlined in Cuomo’s NY Forward economic reopening framework that Westchester, and its sister counties that comprise the Mid Hudson Region, must all reach to qualify for reopening. And specifically, the two health metrics the county and region have yet to reach, namely new hospitalizations and sustained declines in hospital deaths. According to the New York State Regional Monitoring Dashboard on Sunday, May 17 – the Mid Hudson Region has sustained a 3-day rolling average of 2.02 New Hospitalizations per 100K population over the past three days. That number is very close to where it must be (under two) for our region to meet this health metric. That number was 2.77 on May 14 and 4.74 on May 7.

To reach the final of seven metrics, each county in the region must sustain a 14-day decline in COVID-19 Hospital Deaths OR a 3-day average of fewer than five deaths. Currently, the region is showing only a 3-day decline in Hospital Deaths. That number is a deterioration from 5 days of declining deaths reported on May 14. However the Mid Hudson region has sustained a 3-day average of 10 deaths – very close to the target of under 5! . And a big drop from the 3-day average of 69 deaths reported on May 14. So, while a reopening on Memorial Day may not be in the bag – the numbers are steadily declining and the two new benchmarks are certainly within reach.

Note that all seven counties, including Rockland, Putnam, Ulster, Dutchess, Orange and Sullivan must reach all seven metrics in order for any of the counties to clear for Phase 1 reopening. Ulster County is the only Mid Hudson county to reach all seven metrics. Five of New York State’s northern regions, including Central New York, Finger Lakes, Mohawk Valley, North Country and Southern Tier, passed all seven COVID-19 health metrics in time to begin their Phase 1 re-opening on May 15. Governor Cuomo announced this morning that two more regions, Western New York and the Capital Region, that includes Albany and Schenectady, are set to open. That leaves only three regions that are not ready to open. Namely, New York City, Long Island and Mid Hudson – which comprise 70% of the New York population.

The seven health metrics include, declines in Total Hospitalizations, Deaths, and New Hospitalizations. And exceeding minimum benchmarks for Hospital Bed Capacity, ICU Capacity, Diagnostic Capacity (testing), and Contact Tracing Capacity. Regions must continue to meet all seven metrics or they would lose their reopening status and return to being subject to the guidelines outlined in NY Pause. The metrics are based on guidance from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the World Health Organization, and the U.S. Department of State.

In Latimer’s report to the Armonk Chamber of Commerce last Wednesday, he said that if Westchester qualifies for a Phase 1 Reopening by Memorial Day he would expect the county to move to Phase 2 by June 1 and Phase 3 by June 15. He made no forecast of when the county would qualify for Phase 4 of the New York Forward Plan. Here’s a brief glimpse at what each of the reopening phases would look like.

Phase 1

The first phase of the NY Forward plan includes reopening construction, manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, wholesale trade and retail businesses. In this phase retail openings would be limited to curbside or in-store pick-up and drop off. The State has released mandatory guidelines for all Phase 1 businesses regarding physical distancing, protective equipment, hygiene and cleaning, communication, and screening. You can read them here. Phase 1 Retail includes:

Clothing Stores
Direct Selling Establishments
Electronics and Appliance Stores
Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses
Furniture and Home Furnishing Stores
Florists
General Merchandise Stores
Health and Personal Care Stores
Jewelry, Luggage, and Leather Goods Stores
Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies Stores
Office Supplies, Stationery, and Gift Stores
Used Merchandise Stores
Shoe Stores
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument and Book Stores
Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers

Phase 2

The second phase of the New York State plan would open up full economic activity for retail, professional services, administrative support, real estate and rental & leasing. Again, this could happen, according to Latimer by June 1.

Phase 3

Phase 3 is the opening of restaurants and food services – currently forecast for June 15.

Phase 4

The final phase of New York’s reopening plan would bring all arts, entertainment, recreation and education online. Latimer offered no guidance on when Phase 4 of New York’s re-opening plan would occur. (That means schools, theatre and summer camps. UGH!)