Real Estate Update & Outlook 2015-16

Real Estate Update & Outlook 2015-16: Home sales reached a ten-year high across New York City’s northern suburbs in 2015, according to a report from Houlihan Lawrence. We check in with Barry Graziano, Manager of Houlihan Lawrence’s Armonk and Chappaqua brokerages break down the details for us and to take a look at the 2016 local real estate market.

How did 2015 end for home sales in Northern Westchester?

Houlihan Lawrence recently reported that home sales in Northern Westchester reached a ten-year high in 2015. That should be very encouraging news for homeowners who have lived through a tough environment for quite some time.

The number of homes sold jumped 8%, from 942 in 2014 to 1015 in 2015. That’s an 80% rebound from 2009 when area home sales bottomed out at 567 homes.

Can you break that down by town for us?

Chappaqua saw the largest increase, 24% (from 176 to 219) followed by the Byram Hills School District, 14%, (133 to 151) and Katonah-Lewisboro, 12%, (195 to 219) and Somers, 8%, (138 to 149). Bedford saw a slight drop in total home sales, -6%, (240 to 225) and North Salem dropped 13% (60 to 52).

How about prices?

Median sales prices for Northern Westchester homes in 2015 ($749,000) compared with 2014 ($746,750) were statistically flat. That was pretty much across the board though North Salem dropped 18% on a small sample of home sales.

Armonk topped the headline numbers with a median sales price of $999,000, followed by Chappaqua at $909,000 and Bedford at $831,000. Katonah-Lewsboro followed at $625,000.

And homes are selling faster and asking prices are getting firmer …

Once you sit down with a broker, look at the comps and set a realistic “go to market” price on your home, those are the two biggest concerns sellers have.

88 Indian Hill Road in Bedford listed at $1,299,000

The average days on market, for homes sold, dropped from 119 days in 2014 to 109 days last year. That number is down from a peak of 136 days in 2012.

And the sale price to list price reached a ten year high at 96.1% – up from a trough of 92.7% in 2009. That’s another confidence builder for home sellers. So yes, homes are selling faster and asking prices are getting firmer.

And your 2016 outlook?

We’re anticipating another strong year for home sales. Year-end inventories for 2015 were down 3.6% over 2014. And pending sales at year-end were up 9.6% – a slight acceleration over the full year numbers. Those are key numbers to look at when looking ahead.

Another factor, of course, is interest rates. Buyers have a lot of motivation right now with the Federal Reserve Bank increasing their target rate a quarter point and signaling 2 or 3 more rate increases in 2016. The job market also remains strong with December’s government jobs data coming in stronger than expected.

What’s the sweet spot in the real estate market?

24 Sniffen Road in Armonk listed at $800,000

The strongest demand is for homes under $1 million, though in Northern Westchester there is high demand for homes up to $1.5 million. Young money is driving the market. Millennials, the oldest of whom have now reached 35 years old, dominate the workforce. They are faced with extremely tight inventories at the low end of the market, with inventories of homes under a half-million dollars down 18.6% at year end and homes under $700,000 down 11%. They are feeling a growing sense of urgency to snap up homes before they’re gone. As interest grows in entry-level priced homes, established homeowners will gain the confidence to move up, creating demand at higher price points.

Here’s a ten year market history of the northern Westchester Real Estate market encompassing Armonk, Bedford, Chappaqua, Katonah, Somers and North Salem from Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service provided to us by Houlihan Lawrence. For individual reports on each town click here: Armonk, Bedford, Chappaqua, Katonah, North Salem, Somers.