Real Estate Update & Outlook 2016-17

Real Estate Update & Outlook 2016-17: Home sales reached a ten-year high across New York City’s northern suburbs in 2016, according to a report from Houlihan Lawrence. We checked in with Barry Graziano, Manager of Houlihan Lawrence’s Armonk brokerage to break down the details for us and to take a look at the 2017 local real estate market.

How did 2016 end for home sales in Northern Westchester?

Houlihan Lawrence recently reported that home sales in Northern Westchester reached a ten-year in 2016. That should be very encouraging news for homeowners who have lived through a tough environment for quite some time.

Homes sales jumped 9%, from 1015 in 2015 to 1106 in 2016. That’s an 80% rebound from 2009 when the market bottomed at 567 homes sold.

Can you break that down by town for us?

North Salem saw the largest increase, 31% (from 52 to 68 homes) followed by Bedford, 16% (from 225 to 261), Katonah-Lewisboro, 16% (from 219 to 255) and Somers, 11% (from 149 to 165). Chappaqua dropped 3% (from 219 to 212) after leading the area with a 24% increase in 2015. And Byram Hills dropped 4% (from 151 to 145) following a 14% gain last year.

How about prices?

10 Hallock Place, Armonk listed at $1,750,000

Prices were stable throughout the county in 2016 while the median sales price for Northern Westchester homes dropped 5% from $749,000 to $710,000. However four out of the six towns in our area saw prices rise. In Byram Hills, the median home sales price jumped 5% to $1,050,000 – up from $999,000. North Salem home prices jumped 6% to $460,750. The other towns that saw price appreciation were Chappaqua up 1% to $914,500 and Katonah-Lewisboro up 1% to $605,500.

Homes are selling fast at close to list!

The average days on market, for homes sold dropped from 109 days in 2015 to 104 days in 2016. That number, which is at a ten year low, has dropped for four consecutive years and is down from a peak of 136 days in 2012. The sale price to list was 95.8% the second highest number in the past ten years, exceeded only by last year’s ten year record number of 96.1%. That’s good news for sellers looking forward.

What about luxury homes?

19 Kingdom Ridge Rd., Bedford listed at $2,495,000

Luxury has made a comeback. Pending sales rose nearly 20 percent at the end of the year, setting luxury sales up for a great 2017. More homes have come on the market, and buyers have responded to having more choice. The improving economy and consumer confidence have been good to the high-end real estate market. The proof is in the data: sales of homes priced above $2 million have increased by 4 percent.

Looking ahead to 2017

We’re anticipating a strong year based on declining inventory and year-end pending sales numbers. In December home listings were down 4.9% compared to 2015. Pending sales were up 7.4%. Those are key numbers to look at when forecasting and both suggest a strong start to 2017.

266 Byram Lake Rd., Mt. Kisco listed at $899,000

For people concerned about the slight drop-off in prices in Northern Westchester there is good news as we look beyond our communities. Countywide home sale prices held steady in 2016.

Entry-level home markets with inventory under $1 million have been moving fast. In Pleasantville home sales shot up 40%. Yorktown sales were up 26% and Hendrick Hudson was up 34%. When we look north to Putnam and Dutchess counties, prices are rising and home sales are increasing in the 18-22% range.

Heightened activity and rising prices for entry level homes to our north will positively impact prices in Northern Westchester as young families look to trade up.

The oldest millenials are turning 35 this year and they have grown-up incomes and are looking to buy homes for their families. They will meet the demand for baby boomers who are looking to downsize.

What about interest rates?

98 North Old Farm Rd., Chappaqua listed at $1,395,000

Last year, the Fed signaled 2 or 3 rate increases. There was one. This year they are signaling 2 or 3 rate increases again. No one knows how many times the Fed will increase rates this year but rates are still low, the job market remains strong and inventories are low.

So it is time for buyers to lock in a property if they want it. Already we are seeing more buyers and fewer properties from which to choose. The days of competitive bidding may seem another world away but we are seeing the beginnings of a very tough market for buyers who want to have choice.

Here’s a ten year market history of the northern Westchester Real Estate market encompassing Armonk, Bedford, Chappaqua, Katonah, Somers and North Salem from Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service provided to us by Houlihan Lawrence. For individual reports on each town click here: Armonk, Bedford, Chappaqua, Katonah, North Salem, Somers.