Westchester’s Reopening – A Timeline

Westchester’s Reopening – A Timeline: Late Thursday night, Governor Andrew Cuomo extended NY On Pause until May 28 for any state regions that have not already qualified for NY Forward – a four-phase economic reopening plan that enabled five upstate regions to partially reopen this weekend. He also extended emergency stay at home orders to June 13. Cuomo’s announcement seemingly contradicted Westchester County Executive George Latimer, who told the Armonk Chamber of Commerce Wednesday, that Westchester County, and the other six counties in the NY Mid-Hudson Region, could be ready to partially reopen by Memorial Day. However, Cuomo clarified in a tweet yesterday that “as soon as a region hits its benchmark, it comes online immediately — it does not have to wait until May 28.”

Any imminent re-opening will no doubt bring joy to some and absolute horror to others. So let’s chill a bit and take a look at what a phased economic re-opening would look like. And what are the remaining health hurdles that must be reached before we get there.

The NY Forward Plan outlines a four-phase process to restart “non-essential” businesses and services. In order for any NY State Region to enter Phase 1, each county in the region must reach seven COVID-19 Health metrics. The metrics are based on guidance from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the World Health Organization, and the U.S. Department of State. Five of New York State’s northern regions, including Central New York, Finger Lakes, Mohawk Valley, North Country and Southern Tier, have already passed all seven COVID-19 health metrics and began their Phase 1 re-opening on May 15.

For the time being, the Mid-Hudson Region, which includes Dutchess, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, Sullivan, Ulster, and Westchester counties, remains on pause. Westchester County has met 5 of the 7 health metrics described in the NY Forward Plan. Ulster County has already reached all seven metrics. Based on New York State Department of Health data for the seven counties in the Mid-Hudson Region, Latimer forecasts that Westchester, along with the other counties in our region, is on target to enter Phase 1 by Memorial Day. That would put the county on track to move into Phase 2 by around June 1 and Phase 3 by June 15. He offered no prediction about the final Phase 4 re-opening.

Below, we outline what you can expect to see when NY Forward Plan takes effect in our region. And the remaining health hurdles that must be reached before we get there.

Phase 1

The first phase of the NY Forward plan  includes reopening construction, manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, wholesale trade and retail businesses. In this phase retail openings would be limited to curbside or in-store pick-up and drop off. The State has released mandatory guidelines for all Phase 1 businesses regarding physical distancing, protective equipment, hygiene and cleaning, communication, and screening. You can read them here. Phase 1 Retail includes:

• Clothing Stores
• Direct Selling Establishments
• Electronics and Appliance Stores
• Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses
• Furniture and Home Furnishing Stores
• Florists
• General Merchandise Stores
• Health and Personal Care Stores
• Jewelry, Luggage, and Leather Goods Stores
• Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies Stores
• Office Supplies, Stationery, and Gift Stores
• Used Merchandise Stores
• Shoe Stores
• Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument and Book Stores
• Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers

Phase 2

The second phase of the New York State plan would open up full economic activity for retail, professional services, administrative support, real estate and rental & leasing. Again, this could happen, according to Latimer by June 1.

Phase 3

Phase 3 is the opening of restaurants and food services – currently forecast for June 15.

Phase 4

The final phase of New York’s reopening plan would bring all arts, entertainment, recreation and education online. Latimer offered no guidance on when Phase 4 of New York’s re-opening plan would occur. (That means schools, theatre and summer camps. UGH!)

Description of Health Metrics:

But first, all counties in NY’s Mid-Hudson Region have to reach all seven health metrics outlined by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the World Health Organization, the U.S. Department of State. That includes Ulster, Dutchess, Sullivan, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, and Westchester. Some county’s in the region, such as Ulster County, have already met all seven metrics. What are these metrics and where do we stand. (See the NY State Regional Dashboard for more detail.)

Metric #1—Decline in Total Hospitalizations. To reach this metric a region must show a sustained decline in the three-day rolling average of total net hospitalizations (defined as the total number of people in the hospital on a given day) over the course of a 14-day period. NY’S MID-HUDSON REGION HAS ALREADY MET THIS METRIC.

Metric #2—Decline in Deaths. Region must show a sustained decline in the three-day rolling average of daily hospital deaths over the course of a 14-day period OR fewer than 5 deaths per day. As of May 13 the region has two days of declining deaths and an average of 69 per day. NY’S MID-HUDSON REGION HAS NOT MET THIS METRIC.

Metric #3—New Hospitalizations. Region must experience fewer than 2 new hospitalizations per 100,000 residents, measured on a three-day rolling average. New hospitalizations include both new admissions and prior admissions subsequently confirmed as positive COVID cases. Currently NY’S MID-HUDSON REGION’S new hospitalizations rate is 2.77 per 100,000 residents so NY’S MID-HUDSON REGION HAS NOT MET THIS METRIC.

Metric #4—Hospital Bed Capacity. Regions must have at least 30% of their hospital beds available. Westchester County has 33% of its beds available so: NY’S MID-HUDSON REGION HAS ALREADY MET THIS METRIC.

Metric #5—ICU Bed Capacity. Regions must have at least 30% of their ICU beds available. NY’S MID-HUDSON REGION HAS ALREADY MET THIS METRIC.

Metric #6—Diagnostic Testing Capacity. Average daily diagnostic testing over the past 7 days must be sufficient to conduct 30 tests per 1,000 residents per month. NY’S MID-HUDSON REGION HAS ALREADY MET THIS METRIC.

Metric #7—Contact Tracing Capacity. Number of contact tracers in each region must meet thresholds set by the Department of Health, in collaboration with the Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health and Vital Strategies. NY’S MID-HUDSON REGION HAS ALREADY MET THIS METRIC.